The Technology Industry in 2009 (One man’s opinion)

It’s time to consider what 2009 will bring for the technology industry. It’s more than just an idle exercise: In order to stay relevant, I need to make some reasonable predictions about what I should be learning as new technology becomes available. So here’s where I’m investing my learning time, and why.

Cloud Computing

Sure, this one is easy.  The big players in our industry are spending millions to build cloud computing infrastructure. I doubt they are all wrong.

Personally, I believe it’s too early to pick winners among the major players. In fact, they may all be winners. More importantly, I want to consider what cloud computing will enable us to build.

‘Computing in the cloud’ gives us scope we’ve never had before. Scope of CPU, scope of storage, scope of geography.

CPU scope means that applications out of our reach will now be possible. Consider genetic algorithms. Larger populations will be possible, because the cost function for subsets of the population can be distributed among more CPUs in the cloud. Applications like SETI at home can easily move to the cloud. Any applications that can be scaled into multiple processes can be moved into the cloud, and can be scaled to solver larger and larger problems.

Storage Scope means that applications that need more and more storage can be considered in the cloud computing era. What can we do to solver world health problems if we can analyze data from everywhere in the world? Can we cure cancer? Can we analyze the spread of viral outbreaks with world-wide data? If we can analyze them, can we stop them? Or at least slow them?

Clearly, CPU scope and storage scope are related. Many problems that require enormous amounts of data also require tremendous CPU resources. In both cases, we’re now going to create software that can address larger and larger problems.

The elasticity of the cloud computing platforms available means that it will be easier to validate these new applications on smaller subsets of the data, or algorithms. Then, as the algorithms are proved in the small scope, more and more resources can be brought to bear on larger and larger problems.

Rich Internet Applications (RIA) grow up

Right now, the industry doesn’t have a consistent definition of an RIA application. Is it a web application? Smart client? Something new? A mix of all those things we’ve already had?

It seems that no one knows for sure. And yet, there’s clear direction from all of us that use software on the web.  The occasionally connected, or casually connected user, is important. Web applications don’t work for them. RIA applications must satisfy the user that isn’t always connected to the web. That means something different than a browser based application. It means a UI that works offline. It means a data storage model that works offline. It means real state management. It means a push model: send data to the user rather than asking the user to poll for updates as an explicit action.

Of course, not everyone will want, or be allowed to install or run a rich client. And, your users may sometimes be using borrowed machines. That means supporting a browser based experience for broader reach.

In my opinion, an RIA will come to mean an application that has several work models. The key feature will be server-based (or cloud based) data storage, multiple client based experiences, and every one of those client experiences will be as as rich as possible, based on the constraints of the delivery experience. Is that Silverlight? Flash? something new? A WPF application using WCF to communicate?  Well, yes. It means all those things.

In addition, because the data storage will be based at the server, or in the cloud, RIA applications will be, by definition, highly collaborative. You’ll be sharing data, and sharing work, with many others. The RIA applications must be capable of handling that kind of collaborative workflow.

Multi-touch goes Mainstream

Surface? Windows 7 with Multi-touch? Even the iPhone. It’s a start. The current UI metaphors are  more than a decade old. It’s hard to believe that we’ve not come up with any new ways to communicate with our machines.  I want the speech recognition from Star Trek. OK, that may be a bit too far in the future, but I do believe it’s time for something new.

Direct manipulation on the screen seems to be the most promising.

As with cloud computing, it’s more interesting to look at what these new metaphors might enable us to accomplish. Surface computing is highly collaborative. Many people can work on the same computing platform together in ways that just aren’t possible using the traditional PC (or Mac). Multi-touch is going to bring surface – like metaphors to the mainstream. In fact, it may help drive adoption enough that the price point for a surface will come down to where it becomes a mainstream computing device.

I think that as more and more applications show up for these new and different platforms, there will be more and more demand for applications that make use of these new metaphors.

Social Networking as a business tool

Most businesses are afraid of social networking applications. The current thinking is that social networks (facebook, twitter, blogging) provide a megaphone for a business’s harshest critics. That’s true, but that’s only one facet of how social networks can affect businesses. It’s also not one of the better uses of social networks for businesses.

Instead, I believe that this year, businesses will learn to leverage social networks to build customer communities, or enable customers to endorse products. In addition, businesses will learn to use social networks to keep their customers up to date on new and upcoming products, events, and more.

It’s really just another way to communicate. What seems hard for businesses is that it’s more of a two-way conversation than traditional marketing efforts. The winners will be the companies that can learn how to promote what they do in the context of a two way conversation.

Conclusions

Of course, I’m probably wrong about many of this. Predicting the future is very difficult. However, I do believe all four of these topics will be important over the next year, as businesses try to create value and compete for customers in a shrinking world economy. Software is going to command some resources, but in order to continue to grow, software will need to provide ever increasing value for ever decreasing costs. All of the topics I’ve mentioned above will help software companies create greater value.